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I. MIGRATION FROM UKRAINE FOR EMPLOYMENT WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL MIGRATION PROCESSES

5. IMPACT OF MIGRATION PROCESSES ON THE DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION IN THE WORLD AND IN UKRAINE

Migration for employment, what with the huge number of people it involves, directly impacts on the demographic situation both in the countries/donors and countries/hosts of migrant workers.

It is common knowledge that most of the countries, especially the developed ones, are faced with a critical demographic situation: negative population growth is persistent because of lower birth rates and ageing. Accordingly, the age structure of the population changes, as the elderly swell the unemployable age group, while the employable age group and children decline. This increases the number of consumers of manufactured products and reduces the number of those who manufacture the products.

The worsening demographic situation arouses serious concern of governments and the public in many countries and affects society and its socioeconomic development. Since the demographic processes are slow, the required economic development of a country can be achieved by attracting migrant workers from elsewhere. Precisely this factor is used where the demographic situation becomes tense.

Given a zero migration and stable death rate, the birth rate should be 2.2 children per one woman of childbearing age in order to sustain a population balance. To date this rate is 1.4 in the EU countries.

For the EU countries the only salvation from the negative consequences of the demographic crisis is to increase immigration, because otherwise they will be doomed to gradual extinction. Experts estimate that by 2050 the population of Italy will drop from 57 million to 41 million and in the UK from 59 million to 56 million. Apart from that, the people in these countries will be steadily ageing. While in 1950 only 12% of the population of the most developed countries reached the retirement age (over 65 years), in 2000 this rate was 19% and in 2050 it is expected to be 33%. This will gradually increase the pressure on the employed population who will be forced to support socially an ever-growing number of pensioners whose maintenance is 2.5 times as costly as the maintenance of children.

One way out of this crisis situation is the objective need to increase the flow of migrant workers into the most developed countries of Europe and the world. According to the estimates of UN demography specialists, in the next 25 years the EU countries will need 135 million immigrants in order to compete on the global world market.

Such a prospect offers an additional opportunity for Ukraine to pursue a more active policy of lobbying the interests of Ukrainian migrant workers, in particular within the context of concluding with EU countries bilateral and multilateral agreements on employment and social protection.

At the same time there arises another question – how will migration for employment affect the demographic situation in Ukraine?

In other countries the share of the population working abroad is comparatively negligible (7% in Mexico and 6% in the Philippines), while in Ukraine this rate is higher and, as experts estimate, accounts from 10% of the population when correlated with the five million migrant workers. But unlike countries that traditionally supply extra labor abroad and have a stable natural population growth, Ukraine’s population has been steadily declining since 1993 because of a sharp decrease in birth rates and increase in death rates. The main reasons behind such a development are the deteriorating socioeconomic situation that resulted in the poverty of a substantial part of the population, worsening medical services, and unfavorable environmental and sanitary conditions. In the rural areas the decline began some 15-20 years earlier. These factors caused the population of 52.2 million in 1993 (the largest population size in all of Ukraine’s history) to shrink to 48.5 million in 2002, i.e. by almost four million. Scientists predict that by 2026 the population size will drop to 42 million.

Growing emigration from Ukraine will mean a dangerous decline in the population size. This is quite probable when viewed against the upward trend in the growing number of migrant workers who remain in the countries they had gone to for temporary employment.

To deal with these problems, the government will have to effect comprehensive measures by eradicating poverty and mass unemployment, raising standards of living, as well as improving social protection and medical services.

Some experts believe that one of the options of dealing with these problems is to permit the entry of more immigrants into Ukraine, from Third World countries included.

Under such a situation the Commissioner thinks that it is urgent for the government to build up a concept of migration policy that would take into account the current demographic situation in the country as well as the processes related to the egress of Ukrainian citizens for employment abroad and the immigration into Ukraine of migrant workers from other countries.

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